January 2025

Released February 12, 2025


Consumer Price Index



From December 2024 to January 2025:

  • Headline CPI-U inflation was 0.47 percent.
    • Food price inflation was 0.36 percent.
    • Energy price inflation was 1.08 percent.
  • Core CPI-U inflation was 0.45 percent.


From January 2024 to January 2025:

  • Headline CPI-U inflation was 3.00 percent.
    • Food price inflation was 2.50 percent.
    • Energy price inflation was 0.97 percent.
  • Core CPI-U inflation was 3.26 percent.


Note: Core CPI-U excludes food and energy.





Table 1. Consumer Price Index

Jan 2025 Dec 2024 M/M difference Jan 2024 Y/Y difference
Month-over-month inflation
Consumer Price Index 0.47% 0.36% 0.11pp 0.34% 0.13pp
Core Consumer Price Index 0.45% 0.21% 0.24pp 0.37% 0.08pp
Food Consumer Price Index 0.36% 0.29% 0.07pp 0.35% 0.01pp
Energy Consumer Price Index 1.08% 2.42% -1.34pp -0.03% 1.11pp
Year-over-year inflation
Consumer Price Index 3.00% 2.89% 0.11pp 3.09% -0.09pp
Core Consumer Price Index 3.26% 3.24% 0.02pp 3.86% -0.60pp
Food Consumer Price Index 2.50% 2.51% -0.01pp 2.57% -0.07pp
Energy Consumer Price Index 0.97% -0.52% 1.49pp -4.56% 5.53pp


Table 2. Cleveland Federal Reserve Forecast

Cleveland Fed forecast Actual Forecast error
Month-over-month inflation
Consumer Price Index 0.24% 0.47% -0.22pp
Core Consumer Price Index 0.27% 0.45% -0.18pp
Year-over-year inflation
Consumer Price Index 2.85% 3.00% -0.15pp
Core Consumer Price Index 3.13% 3.26% -0.13pp


Real earnings


From December 2024 to January 2025:

For all employees on private nonfarm payrolls:

For production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls:

Note: “Real” measures are those adjusted for inflation.

Note: Weekly earnings are a better estimate of income than hourly earnings because they take into account the amount of hours worked.


Table 3. Real Earnings Indicators

Jan 2025 Dec 2024 M/M difference Jan 2024 Y/Y difference
All employees
Real hourly earnings
Month-over-month 0.00% -0.09% 0.09pp 0.18% -0.18pp
Year-over-year 0.99% 1.17% -0.18pp 1.18% -0.19pp
Real weekly earnings
Month-over-month -0.28% -0.40% 0.12pp -0.46% 0.18pp
Year-over-year 0.74% 0.56% 0.18pp -0.02% 0.76pp
Production and non-supervisory
Real hourly earnings
Month-over-month 0.00% -0.10% 0.10pp 0.21% -0.21pp
Year-over-year 1.13% 1.34% -0.21pp 1.67% -0.54pp
Real weekly earnings
Month-over-month -0.59% 0.23% -0.82pp -0.71% 0.12pp
Year-over-year 1.14% 1.02% 0.12pp -0.18% 1.32pp


Upcoming releases


Date Time Release Data source
Feb 13 10:00 AM Monthly Fiscal Update, January 2025 U.S. Treasury
Feb 27 08:30 AM Monthly GDP Update, Q4 2024 Second Estimate Bureau of Economic Analysis
Feb 28 08:30 AM Monthly Expenditures Update, January 2025 Bureau of Economic Analysis
Mar 07 08:30 AM Monthly Employment Update, February 2025 Bureau of Labor Statistics
Mar 07 10:00 AM Monthly Debt Update, March 2025 U.S. Treasury
Mar 12 08:30 AM Monthly Inflation Update, February 2025 Bureau of Labor Statistics


Notes


Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; JEC Republicans calculations

“pp” = percentage points; “M/M” = month over month; “Y/Y” = year over year

Consistent with the Bureau of Labor Statistics, monthly figures are seasonally adjusted. Discrepancy in change figures is possible due to rounding.